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Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

In a post last week, I described my anime DVD purchasing habits as follows: “I don’t buy much anime on DVD these days, mostly owing to the fact that much of what’s being licensed and released lately is of little interest to me.” Well, somewhere around mile one thousand, two hundred and twenty three driving through rural Nebraska yesterday, I got to wondering about the accuracy of that statement. So, this afternoon, I sat down and ran the numbers.

Generally, if I watch a show fansubbed from start to finish, it’s because I enjoy it. In other words, if I dislike a show, I’m unlikely to finish it. So, if I watched a show in its entirety, it’s at least “of interest” to me. Since the R1 licensing landscape began to change with the DVD market downturn of 2004, I chose to limit my data set to those shows which have aired since January of that year. That’s just under three years worth of new anime. So, let’s get to it…

Number of shows watched fansubbed, in their entirety, since January 2004: 59

Of those, the number of shows licensed (and announced as such) for R1 release: 19

Now, let’s look at the details for those shows which have been licensed. So far, 10 shows have either been released on DVD in their entirety or are in the process of being released. Of those shows, I have purchased or am in the process of purchasing 5 (Comic Party Revolution, Diamond Dust Drops (R2), Genshiken, Ichigo Mashimaro, and Koi Kaze). Now, of the remaining 9 shows that have yet to be released on DVD, I tentatively plan to purchase 4 (Mushishi, School Rumble, Shuffle, Suzuka). So, of all shows licensed, I have either purchased, am in the process of purchasing, or plan to purchase a total of 9 on DVD. Half, basically. The remaining 10 shows aren’t bad, by any means - I just don’t feel they have enough rewatch value to justify owning on DVD.

Now, the number of shows that remain unlicensed: 40

Twice the number of shows that have been licensed, basically, or nearly 70% of all shows watched. Of these shows, I have purchased a grand total of 1 on R2 DVD (Uta Kata). That leaves 39 shows unaccounted for. Of these, how many would I be interested in purchasing on DVD should they be licensed for R1 release? 20. That’s a lot of shows. Unfortunately, looking at the list, I won’t be holding my breath.

So, what’s the conclusion? Of the all the shows I’ve watched fansubbed in their entirety the past three years, roughly 30% have been licensed for R1 release. I own or am interested in owning half of those. Of the remaining 70% of shows that have gone unlicensed, I’m interested in owning half. Of all shows watched, licensed, and unlicensed, I own or am interested in owning, you guessed it, half.

Taking all of that into consideration, was my original statement accurate? For the most part, yes. It’s worth noting that, of all of the shows that have been licensed thus far, the vast majority aired in 2004. And it’s also worth noting that, of all of the shows that remain unlicensed, there are quite a few I’d consider personal favorites. Hear that, R1 distributors? I’m an untapped market!

Oh, and while I was at it, I calculated the value of my anime DVD collection: roughly $11,000.

Hey, it’s got to be cheaper than buying figures.

The Art of Kobayashi Shichiro

I thought I was going to have to promote Asatte no Houkou, but from reading other anime blogs and keeping an eye on discussion boards, it looks as if the first episode has been well received. Big thanks to Lunar Anime for fansubbing the show and making it accessible to a wider audience.

I’ve been looking forward to Asatte no Houkou for awhile now, and it’s mostly for one reason: Kobayashi Shichiro. As Art Director for the show, he’s primarily responsible for background design. I’m a background junkie - it’s what I pay attention to most when judging a show’s production values - and, should you ask me to list my favorite shows in that capacity, Kobayashi Shichiro would be a common link amongst them.

He has a unique style, and if you’ve watched any of the shows he’s worked on, that style should be easily recognizable. Simoun, To Heart, Figure 17, Utena, A Little Snow Fairy Sugar, Yokohama Kaidashi Kikou, Windy Tales… the list goes on and on. In fact, that’s just a smattering of recent titles. At 74 years old, Kobayashi has been in the anime business for a long time - since the mid 1960s, believe it or not. He’s worked on shows you and I have never even heard of.

Oh, and an interesting bit of trivia: before his career in the anime industry took off, Kobayashi was an elementary school art teacher. How cool is that?

Hopefully, he’s not planning on retiring any time soon. He looks good for his age, at least.

Fandom Eats Itself

Once more unto the breach!

Before I begin, I should mention that I’m only keeping up with one Doremi release at the moment, that being Binbou Shimai Monogatari. Ignoring the odd line here and there, I’ve been satisfied with the group’s work on the show. Still, I think DarkMirage’s criticism of their Mai-Otome DVD Special release is legitimate. Someone really dropped the ball there.

Anyway…

Why do I watch fansubs? Because I’m lazy, to be honest. My Japanese comprehension skills are decent enough, but even despite that, there are very few shows I can fully enjoy without the aid of any translation whatsoever. Some shows, I can manage well enough. Others, I’d be completely lost without subtitles. In the end, I only have time to watch any given episode once before moving on, so I find its simply more efficient to wait patiently for a fansub release than attempt to stay on top of a show as it airs in Japan. My schedule is wonky enough that, even if I were pulling episodes off Winny the day they aired, I wouldn’t have time to watch them for several more days to come. Fansubs suit my pace, it seems.

But, as much as I appreciate the work fansub groups are doing, I have to admit that I find the fansub community in general to be a pretty ugly place. It’s the stench of arrogance, I think. Visit just about any fansub group’s website and poke around their discussion forum, and you’ll see it plain as day…

“When will the next episode be released?”

“Shut up and go away. It’ll be released when it’s released.”

It’s no secret that fansub groups compete with each other. Not over quality of work, mind you - unless you consider annoying karaoke effects to be work befitting of honest criticism - but, rather, over eyeballs. The group that gets the most attention wins. Who has more people idling in their IRC channel? Who has the most active discussion forum? Who sees their name in lights most often? It’s a popularity contest, obviously.

So why, pray tell, are so many fansubbers such giant assholes most of the time? Why do they insist on reminding people to “not complain about something they got for free?” Why do they waste so much energy trashing the commercial anime industry - an industry that, for all basic purposes, is responsible for bringing anime fandom out of the shadows and into the mainstream? And why do fansub groupies bend over and take it with a smile? The moronic “Fansubs are better than DVDs!” talking point will never die, I fear.

Mind you, I don’t think the fansub scene is a lost cause. I’d argue that things have improved a good bit in recent years. The days of mega-groups subbing more shows than feasible are behind us, it seems. Fewer niche shows are falling through the cracks. There are still some good groups out there doing good work for all the right reasons.

On the other hand, I have to agree with DarkMirage: fansubbers aren’t doing what they claim to be doing. Are fansubbers (and their fans) so arrogant as to think the commercial anime industry would be lost without them? Or is that just an excuse?

Honesty counts, you know.

Ahem (Again)…

A second season of The Melancholy of Suzumiya Haruhi has NOT been announced… yet.

On a totally unrelated note, I hear Newtype Japan just sold a shitload of magazines.

Ahem…

The Melancholy of Suzumiya Haruhi has NOT been licensed… yet.

Grow Up or Belly Up?

I’m not too keen on the idea of paying for downloads. Never have been. Ultimately, if I’m shelling out money for media, be it music or video, I care more about quality than convenience. Why would I pay $10 for a compressed, DRM’d version of a music album via the iTunes Music Store when I can purchase the same album in high fidelity on CD for just a couple dollars more? I don’t have anything against compressed music - I download my fair share of anime OP/ED singles, after all - but I’m enough of an audiophile to recognize the difference between MP3s and CDs, and I just can’t bring myself to shell out actual money for compressed music, especially when the uncompressed alternative is reasonably affordable.

What about anime? Would I pay to download anime? Only if I got DVD quality video and a new hard drive as part of the deal. Chances of that happening? Zilch.

Let’s get real for a moment: if Hollywood can’t figure out how to make online digital distribution work, what makes people think the domestic anime industry can pull it off? There seems to be a consensus that ADV should be the torchbearer for this new distribution method, but, last I checked, ADV’s track record when it comes to new business ventures is pretty poor. They fail at pretty much everything they do. And it’s not like the rest of the industry is in a position to make it work. They’re having a hard enough time selling DVDs.

And, of course, how does the industry compete with fansubs? I don’t see how online digital distribution and fansubs can coexist. Furthermore, fansubs have a natural advantage in the market, given that they’re free and fast. All the anime industry can offer is slightly better quality and perhaps better translations. Then again, could a domestic distributor obtain a license for a show, procure high quality masters, and put together a competent translation in the time it takes the average fansub group to release a show in its entirety? Doubtful. And if you’re a dub fan… well, might as well ask for a pony while you’re at it.

Honestly, if the domestic industry decides to give online digital distribution a try, fansubbers are in deep shit. There’s no way the industry will continue to tolerate fansubs with the entire online distribution market at stake. One reason I don’t buy into the “fansubs are killing DVDs” argument is that, if it were truly the case, the industry would be doing a hell of a lot more to actually rectify the situation. Fansubs will kill online distribution, however. I wouldn’t expect the anime industry to sit around and let that happen.

Then, when the whole thing comes crashing down… well, you get the picture.

So, what’s the ailing North American anime industry to do? I don’t know. Really, I don’t. If you ask me, the industry’s current troubles are mostly the result of overexpansion and poor business decisions across the board. Central Park Media’s teetering on the edge of bankruptcy doesn’t surprise me. The company’s presence in the marketplace has been lacking these past few years. But what of, say, ADV? A couple of years ago, ADV ruled the marketplace. What happened? Well, they licensed a bunch of crap shows, for one. Then, they wasted a bucketload of money on a number of failed ventures: ADV manga, ADV toys, and the Anime Network. No wonder they’re hurting.

A year or so ago, I was interviewing for a public relations position with the Right Stuf, and the question of why I was such a particular fan of the company came up. My feeling was that the company’s close relationship with the fan community was key. The fact that the Right Stuf was essentially managed by fans made a big impression on me. And, for all basic purposes, the Right Stuf has milked this close relationship for all its worth, surviving on inexpensive niche shows that appeal most to dedicated anime fans.

But, I fear the Right Stuf is the exception to the rule. Because, if you look at the state of the domestic anime industry today, the companies that appear to be weathering the storm best are those with good business sense and serious financial backing. Perhaps “fan-oriented” ain’t all it’s cracked up to be. Is it time for the domestic anime industry to grow up?

Melancholy Girl in Snow?

Kanon WIN! Haruhi LOSE! Oh noes!

Seriously, folks…

Planning committees are generally responsible for determining episode count, long before a show goes into production. Obviously, available resources factor heavily into that determination, but if the committee has a target episode count, it can always work to procure the resources necessary to make it happen. Animation studios don’t fund themselves from within; the funding for a project comes from outside sources. Ultimately, those sources play an important role in the planning process. They’re footing the bill, after all.

Of course, outside involvement doesn’t cease once a show enters production. If it were up to a single animation studio alone to produce an entire show, start to finish, we’d only see a few new shows each year. Animation studios simply don’t have the manpower or talent necessary to do anything and everything under the sun. So, what’s a studio to do? Outsource, that’s what. Studios rarely do their own in-between animation; typically, the work is contracted out to “sweatshop” studios overseas or large domestic studios such as GAINAX or Production I.G. In fact, some studios exist solely to do in-between work for “marquee” studios. In the case of The Melancholy of Suzumiya Haruhi, in-between work is being handled by Ani Village, a Korean studio.

Clearly, “marquee” studios can (and often do) work on more than one show at the same time. For example, Madhouse is juggling five shows at the moment: Nana, Black Lagoon, Kiba, Yume Tsukai, and Strawberry Panic - and that’s not even counting the shows they may be doing in-between work for. Not all of these shows receive the same priority, however. Nana may be Madhouse through-and-through, but watch the ending credits for Strawberry Panic, and you’ll see a string of Korean names. (For the record, even Nana is being outsourced in part to DR Movie, yet another Korean studio)

Kyoto Animation is no Madhouse, of course. They’re nowhere near as large, nor are they anywhere near as established in the industry. Essentially, they’re a “support” studio that only recently moved up to the big leagues. Even though they’ve been around since 1981, they’re still the new kid on the block.

Now, it’s no secret that Kyoto Animation made a name for itself with its work on Air. And, it’s no secret that the companies involved in the production of that particular show, including Visual Art’s/Key, have made a bundle of money. So, it should come as no surprise that Visual Art’s/Key would choose Kyoto to animate a remake of Kanon. And it should come as no surprise that Kyoto jumped at the opportunity. Kanon is a very, very big deal, after all.

The Melancholy of Suzumiya Haruhi, however? Not a very big deal, I’m sorry to say. But, before crying “Ayu killed Haruhi!,” consider that the episode count for Haruhi was likely decided before the planning process for Kanon even got underway. And, even then, Haruhi doesn’t strike me as the sort of show that would run for 24-26 episodes. Sure, enough original material exists for that number of episodes, but if every show adapted from a popular manga or novel series was animated to its full potential, 100+ episode counts would be commonplace. Compression is a big part of adaptation, and history has shown that you can do a lot with a mere 13 episodes, especially if you’re working with an open-ended story.

Of course, Haruhi sports an odd episode count at fourteen. Granted, odd episode counts seem to be all the rage these days (along with special DVD episodes), but is fourteen really as strange a number as it seems? If you subscribe to the idea that the Kanon remake trampled all over Haruhi, you have to assume 14 = 24-10. But doesn’t 14 = 13+1 make more sense? Especially when the first episode of the show was, essentially, a gag episode?

In other words, fret not fellow Haruhi fans: the show isn’t being cut short. We’re getting an extra episode. And a Kanon remake, to boot! I sure as hell won’t complain.